based on their assessment of the political scenario to predict which
parties and candidates may emerge victorious in tomorrow's
governorship and houses of assembly polls.
Incidentally, the governorship poll will only take place in 29 out of
36 states of the federation following different court judgements which
led to staggered elections in seven states, namely, Bayelsa, Osun,
Ekiti, Osun, Edo, Anambra and Kogi.
South East
As the electorate in the South-East geo-political zone, like other
Nigerians, goes to the polls tomorrow to elect governors and members
of the state Houses of Assembly, indications are that there might be
skirmishes in some areas, and one or two states in the zone, it is
feared, might be captured by the opposition All Progressives congress
(APC).
During the March 28 presidential/National Assembly polls, the
presidential candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP),
Dr Goodluck Jonathan overwhelmed his major opponent, General Muhammadu
Buhari (retd) of APC), in the five South-East states of Abia, Anambra,
Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo.
While President Jonathan scored a total of 2,464,906 votes, Buhari,
polled an appalling 198,248 votes - a mere 8 per cent of Jonathan's
tally.
This scenario is understandable. Since Jonathan emerged as president
in 2010 following the death of his boss, the late President Musa
Yar'Adua, a majority of Ndigbo have regarded Jonathan as one of their
own. It was against this backdrop that the South-East zone also voted
overwhelmingly for him during the 2011 presidential election.
The same feat was repeated in the just concluded March 28, 2015
presidential election, albeit with a relatively lower margin.
As the governorship/House of Assembly elections come up tomorrow -
April 11, 2015, the questions is whether President Jonathan's victory
in the South-East zone would influence the outcome of the poll or
whether the overall victory of General Buhari would have any effect on
the polls in the zone.
Enugu
Enugu State is traditionally PDP. Dr Chimaroke Nnamani, a medical
doctor-turned politician was elected governor of the state in 1999 on
the platform of the PDP. He was succeeded in 2007 by Sullivan Chime, a
lawyer. In both administrations, the State House of Assembly was also
almost entirely PDP.
The groundswell of opinion in Enugu State is that the governorship
candidate of the PDP, Hon. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, would defeat his main
rival, Barrister Okey Ezea, of the APC, with a wide margin. The two
are from Nsukka zone where the state zone the next governor. But while
Ugwuanyi has been in public service, having served three terms in the
House of Reps since 2003, his rival, Ezea, has been a wealthy
businessman who has been running for governor in the last two
dispensations.
The general feeling here is that Governor Chime has performed well in
the last seven years and ten months, so the mantra here is continuity.
Nevertheless, the APC has, since the victory of General Buhari
increased the tempo of its electioneering campaign, but whether this
would translate into vital votes is a matter of conjecture.
The expectation is that this Saturday's election would be peaceful.
However, there was bomb explosion that rocked several polling booths
located at the old Women Teacher Training College (WTC), Enugu, on the
eve of the last presidential election, as well as the alleged
manipulation of results in some local government areas in the state in
favour of a particular political party on March 28.
Ebonyi
Ebonyi has also remained PDP-controlled since 1999, but if today's
governorship/house of assembly elections in the state is peaceful,
free and fair, it is doubtful if the PDP would retain the state.
There is no love lost between outgoing Governor Martin Elechi, and his
deputy, Engineer Dave Umahi, following the governor's preference for
the former minister of health, Prof Onyebuchi Chukwu, to fly the PDP
flag in the state and Umahi's controversial emergence as the party's
standard bearer.
Apparently irked by this development, several thousands of the
governor's supporters moved in drove to the Labour Party (LP), with
Architect Edward Nkweagu, known to be the governor's confidant, as
governorship candidate.
Though the PDP won all the National Assembly slots in the state during
the March 28 election, not a few alleged the party got through
following the connivance of security personnel and some officials of
the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Continue reading at Leadership news:
http://leadership.ng/news/424397/guber-poll-how-states-will-vote
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