Only A Third Of Nigerians Are Poor- Says World Bank

* Says North is poorer
* Predicts 7.4% growth in 2014
* CBN: Elections-related spendings may drive up inflation

Going by the statistics released to journalists yesterday in Abuja by
the World Bank, only 55.9 million Nigerians (about 33.1 per cent of
the country's population put at 169 million) are living below the
acceptable poverty level, a significant improvement from the figure
released last February by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
which put the poverty level at 112.519 million (62.6 per cent).

The World Bank also predicted a 7.4 per cent growth rate in the
country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The World Bank attributed the improvement in the poverty statistics to
the positive economic trend as well as significant progress made
towards poverty eradication in the country by the government. The
poverty figure by the World Bank was drawn from its 2012/2013 poverty
estimates while the one by the NBS was from the 2009/2010 estimates.

But in Abuja yesterday, the Central Bank of Nigeria expressed concern
that the possibility of increased government spending in the run up to
the 2015 elections may drive up the liquidity in the system which
could push upward the inflation figure, a condition which may force
people to spend more money to buy less goods.

The World Bank said, in its second edition of the Nigeria Economic
Report (NER) which was launched in Abuja that going by the recent
rebasing of the economy as well as analysis from the new General
Household Surveys (GHS) conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics
(NBS) with the support of the Bank, new poverty estimates in 2010/2011
and 2012/2013 should be within the range of 35.2 per cent and 33.1 per
cent respectively.

Although the previous NBS Harmonised Nigeria Living Standards Survey
(HNLSS) 2009/2010, which took a larger study sample into account had
estimated poverty rate at 62.6 percent, the Breton woods institution
said it had strong reasons to believe that "consumption was seriously
underestimated in the large HNLSS household survey in 2009/2010."

It stated that an analysis of a panel survey data (GHS) of 5000
households for 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 provided "evidence that
consumption is likely higher than previously estimated from the HNLSS
survey."

Furthermore, the new GHS analysis put rural poverty at 46.3 per cent
and 44.9 per cent in 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 respectively compared to
69.1 per cent and 51.2 per cent respectively in the HNLSS 2009/2010
estimates by the NBS.
The World Bank estimates further suggested that the number of poor
Nigerians remained at 58 million adding that more than half of the
figure are located in the North- east or North-west.

Specifically, it noted:" Poverty rates range from 16 per cent in the
South- West to 52 per cent in the North-east. While the South and
North central experienced declines in the poverty rate between
2010/2011 and 2012/2013, the poverty rate increased almost unchanged
in the North West."

The NBS had since placed a temporary suspension on publishing
unemployment statistics pending the adoption of a new methodology, it
was gathered.

The Bank also said an unofficial assessments using accepted
International Labour Organisation (ILO) methodologies would suggest
that the unemployment rate in Nigeria is less than 10 per cent
compared to the 25 percent figure by the NBS.

"This masks the critical problem in Nigeria of underemployment. Most
Nigerians cannot afford not to work, but a large share of the
population is engaged in low productivity and low paying tasks."

The report said the rebase GDP figure has again drawn attention to
official poverty statistics wondering how a country of the size and
wealth of Nigeria could have such high poverty rates even relative to
neighbouring countries including Niger and Benin Republic- and why the
strong economic growth experienced for more than a decade had not
generated more poverty reduction.

However, in its short- term economic outlook, it said it expected the
Nigerian economy to grow by 7.4 per cent in 2014 "despite significant
risks related to oil and potential volatility in short term capital
flows."

Speaking at the launch, Lead Economist and Acting Country Manager of
the World Bank, John Litwack said: "The combination of the new GDP and
poverty estimates is valuable in giving us what we believe to be a
clearer picture of development and poverty reduction in Nigeria. Both
sets of numbers indicate the prime importance of urban areas for
growth and poverty reduction.