new president next week after a controversial postponement, with the
six-week delay seeing major gains against the Boko Haram jihadists.
Fourteen candidates, including the first woman, are eyeing the top job
but the election is a two-horse race between incumbent Goodluck
Jonathan and former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari.
Next Saturday's poll is being watched closely, given the strong
opposition challenge and the possibility of defeat for a sitting head
of state.
The head of the country's electoral commission, Attahiru Jega,
maintains that "everything humanly possible" has been done to ensure a
free, fair, credible and peaceful vote.
But security threats -- from Boko Haram to political violence -- are the
prime concern, with the Islamist militants renewing attacks on
civilians, despite a wave of claimed military successes.
Just how many of the hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the
violence in the northeast will be able to vote will come under
scrutiny, as will the first use of voter ID card technology.
The election delay has hurt Nigeria's crude-fuelled economy, which has
been battered by the global oil shock, creating investor uncertainty
and an urgent problem for whoever wins.
On Friday, credit ratings agency Standard and Poor's downgraded
Africa's leading economy further into junk territory, blaming falling
crude prices, political instability and Boko Haram.
- Security issues -
Security on polling day is the major concern, with the inability of
soldiers to provide cover nationwide given as a reason for delaying
the initial vote on February 14.
Since then, there has been a wave of military successes, with
indications that the government may soon announce an end to the
six-year conflict, that has claimed more than 13,000 lives.
But there have been warnings against any premature declaration given
fears that the rebels, who have allied themselves to the Islamic State
group, will revert to guerrilla tactics.
Nnamdi Obasi, senior researcher at the International Crisis Group,
said Boko Haram is still able to carry out its threat to disrupt
elections, which it views as "un-Islamic".
"Its fighters may not be able to seize new territory but they could
certainly still send suicide bombers to public places, including
polling centres," he told AFP.
"In many parts of Borno state, the security situation is still tenuous
and displaced persons have not returned or settled down well enough to
participate in elections.
"Elsewhere in the region, the polls will go but very much in an
atmosphere of unease and insecurity."
Political violence, which has plagued previous Nigerian elections and
which in 2011 saw nearly 1,000 people killed in clashes, is also seen
a major risk.
Nigeria's human rights commission recorded nearly 60 deaths in
December and January and there are fears of many more with the
campaign so close.
The head of the Nigeria federal police, Suleiman Abba, vowed on Friday
that trouble-makers will face "the full wrath of the law".
The United Nations has also promised "accountability for anyone who
will choose to contest the election results through violent means".
"The world really is watching," UN Under-Secretary General Jeffery
Feltman said on a visit to Abuja this week.
- Voting procedure -
Some 68.8 million of the 173 million Nigerians are registered to vote
in the presidential and parliamentary election, which are followed on
April 11 by state assembly and gubernatorial polls.
But Jega has been under pressure over the electoral commission's
preparations, particularly from Jonathan's ruling Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP).
The PDP has criticised the rate of distribution of biometric voter ID
cards, the technology used to "read" them and the ability of election
volunteers to use the devices.
Buhari's All Progressives Congress (APC) for its part senses a
government plot to revert to the former paper system, which made
ballot rigging easier, allowing the PDP to cling to power.
Jega said on Monday that 67.8 million cards or 98.5 percent of cards
had been sent out -- up from 66.5 percent a week before February 14 --
but some 20 million had not been collected.
A further delay has been ruled out, with Jonathan's mandate due to
expire on April 30 and a formal handover of power set for May 29.
--AFP
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