and political risk consultancy firm, has stated that incumbent
President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will
win the 2015 presidential election with a margin of 13 per cent
(probability).
The group, which used both 'monkey survey' and 'Political Risk Index'
to forecast the Nigeria election, projected a Jonathan's win if
everything remains constant.
In a statement by Mr O.C Vince, the Vice President of the firm for
West Africa, while addressing a press conference in Abuja, on
Thursday, explained that the firm has no partisan interest in the
outcome of the election which is left for the people of Nigeria to
decide.
The company said it decided to conduct the survey because of the
general global interest the Nigeria election has generated. "Many
people around the world, including political leaders and investors are
focusing on Nigeria to see how the process of democracy is managed,"
he stated.
Mr Vince said the ruling PDP appears to be facing its toughest
challenge in 16 years and hoped the efforts they have made will help
deepen and strengthen democracy in Nigeria and enable the different
contending parties manage their final push toward 2015.
He stated that "We randomly conducted a nationwide opinion poll
focusing on the six geo-political regions of Nigeria: North-East,
North-West, North-Central, South-West, South-East and South-South. The
sampled population were asked three questions centre on human rights,
the economy and security.
One of the questions stated that between Major-General Buhari and
President Jonathan, who would best protect the fundamental human
rights of Nigerians? While APC's Buhari scored 30%, President Jonathan
scored 70%.
The firm noted that the electoral map tilted more favourable towards
President Jonathan in the South-West and middle belt, adding to his
advantage in Niger Delta and South-East while Buhari did well in core
north where he has large followership.
Another question stated that between the elections holding in February
14 as previously scheduled and March 28 as postponed, which date do
you feel safer to participate in the presidential election? 35 %
thinks the election should have been held on February 14 as scheduled
while 65% thinks the March 28 new date is a safer and more secured.
They believe INEC is now more prepared having issued more PVCs and as
wells as tested the card readers.
On the question bothering on who would best grow the economy, while
APC presidential candidate scored 42%, the PDP presidential candidate
scored 58%.
The firm's spokesman explained that its conclusion were reached in
respect of the question 'who would best protect your fundamental human
rights' by taking cognizance of the antecedents and past records of
the two candidates, the past and current utterances of the candidates
and how Nigerians of diverse gender, ethnicity, religion and social
status perceive both candidates and how effectively both candidates
has been marketed to the voting population.
The company said though the Buhari's public relations team has done a
tremendous job in repackaging him yet an overwhelming majority of
Nigerians still view him as a divisive character.
"Majority of the population agrees that President Jonathan is tolerant
and has the best temperament as a democratic president. They cited the
signing of the Freedom of Information Bill by the president and his
high tolerant of criticism as a rare quality for an African leader.
Many, however, criticized President Jonathan's public relations team
for not doing enough to market his achievements which they said
surpassed that of any former leader in recent history.
"We viewed Goodluck Jonathan as a favourite to win re-election based
also on a number of factors even though the election will still be
difficult to call. Our expectation of a Jonathan's win was predicated
on other several factors, chiefly, is the postponement of the election
which has helped him comeback decisively into the race.
"The tepid supports of northern members of PDP seem to have ebbed.
Many of his supporters, especially in the North, now feel safer to
openly campaign for his victory. Governors Lamido and Babangida Aliyu
are now vocally leading the campaign while the vice president is
making major inroads in the North-East and North-West. The incumbency
and financial advantages of the ruling PDP will still help Jonathan
and the PDP.
Read more at Tribune:
http://tribune.com.ng/news/news-headlines/item/32450-jonathan-to-win-election-by-13-probability-uk-based-research-firm
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